What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! If you are reading this, congratulations, you are officially a fantasy golf addict! The Puerto Rico Open brings out the true degenerates who will do whatever it takes just to get a taste of DraftKings golf.
DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Helper: Puerto Rico Open: While the top players in the world head to Mexico, the alternate field tee is up at Coco Beach Golf & Country Club. With lesser known. .Reward tiers are as follows: $3, $10, $100 and $500 are awarded as site credits and can only be used on DraftKings. $1,000, $10,000 & $25,000 are issued.
The best players in the world will NOT be here, as they are competing for some World Golf Championship title in Texas. Clearly those guys have their priorities backwards, as we all know the real prestigious event is taking place in Puerto Rico. The Puerto Rico Open will take place at Coco Beach Golf Club in Puerto Rico. It is a 7,500 yard Par 72. I won’t break down the course too much, just know that the main defense this course has is wind. If the wind picks up this week, then this tournament is a bigger crapshoot than it already is.
The stats I am focusing on this week are the basic stats that translate into DraftKings points. Birdie or better percentage will be my most heavily weighted stat to go along with strokes gained T2G and approach, as well as ball striking and Par 5 scoring average. Two of the Par 5s on this course are reachable by most, but the longer hitters will have a chance to make up ground on the Par 5s that are over 600 yards in length.
Draftkings Puerto Rico Map
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Luke List – $9,900
Luke List is my favorite play of the week even though he will be the chalkiest of chalk plays. Luke List has been sniffing around leaderboards for quite some time now. He had an outstanding fall swing series and now looks to be rounding into form with a 27th and 17th place finish the last two weeks. He leads the field in strokes gained T2G, driving distance, Par 5 scoring and birdie or better percentage. A clean sweep in the key stats and a lock for well over 50% of my lineups. I’ll be shocked if he isn’t in contention on Sunday.
Danny Lee – $8,700
Danny Lee has been really struggling with his game and had a terrible finish to the 2016 season. However, he is still one of the best golfers in the field and seems to have regained some form within the last two weeks. His T17 last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational saw him gain strokes in the field in everything but around the green. Lee has a second place finish at this event in 2015, the only time he has played here in the last five years. Lee is trending in the right direction and is under priced in a very weak field.
Harold Varner III – $7,300
How in the world is a player of Harold Varner’s caliber priced at $7,300 in this field. Sure he can be inconsistent at times, but in this field, he is easily one of the best. Varner played very well last week at Bay Hill, finishing T34 at a course that was playing much harder than Coco Beach. We all know about Varner’s elite driving distance, which will help him score a ton on these easy Par 5s, but he also brings a strong approach game to Puerto Rico after finishing inside the top 5 in strokes gained approach last week. Varner has no business being priced at $7,300 and is a value that has to be taken advantage of.
Brad Fritsch – $7,100
The Canadian contingent is strong this week, with a lot of attention being geared towards Graham DeLaet and Nick Taylor. However, Brad Fritsch is the canuck that stands out the most to me this week. Fritsch is relatively unheard of in the golf world, as he is an older Web.com Tour grad playing his first season on the PGA Tour. He has made four of six cuts this season on tour and is coming off of a T33 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. In this field, Fritsch ranks 14th in strokes gained T2G, 7th in Par 5 scoring and 8th in birdie or better percentage. He has also made the cut here both times he has played in Puerto Rico. Fritsch may be off the radar for most this week, but if you think the “Canadians are hot” narrative (thanks Hadwin) is a thing, he is the Canadian you want to own.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Terrible recent form? Players I will have no shares of.
Scott Brown – $9,800
Scott Brown is drawing a lot of attention from the DFS golf world this week, being tagged the 4th most on FanShareSports.com. Brown is known for his course history, as he is a previous winner here and has multiple top 5 finishes. But this year, Brown is coming in with terrible form, missing his last two cuts and finishing outside of the top 50 nine of his last 11 events. I don’t see Brown regaining his form this week, especially if the winds play a factor. If you are going to tell me Brown is likely going to be highly owned at $9,800 when there are numerous options priced above and below him that are in better form, I will gladly fade Brown.
Tyron Van Aswegen – $8,200
The price on Tyron Van Aswegen just doesn’t line up for me this week, even with the subpar field. I would much rather spend a similar amount on David Hearn, Brandon Hagy or J.J. Spaun. Tyron has suspect results at this event, with no finish inside the top 35 in the last three years. He has very pour ball striking stats and terrible Par 5 scoring average relative to some of the golfers priced around him. Even if I constructed 100 lineups this week, Van Aswegen would not find his way onto a single one.
So you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Graham DeLaet – $10,600
Graham DeLaet may not have burned a ton of people last week, but his missed cut at Bay Hill is still fresh in the memory of lot of people. Don’t let that one missed cut sway you and put you on another top guy that you may not be super excited about. DeLaet has been showing solid form before last week, has a great track record in Puerto Rico and is the best golfer in this field in terms of strokes gained stats. He ranks 1st in my model this week for good reason. If DeLaet is going to win a tournament on the PGA Tour, the Puerto Rico Open is the exact event I’d expect him to take home.
Chris Kirk – $9,100
Chris Kirk strung some solid golf together in the month of February, but has been disappointing his last two events with back-to-back missed cuts. He had been a sneaky play the last couple of weeks because his price was so low and came up empty handed both times. His price tag of $9,100 can still be viewed as a value in this field and with winning upside all know Kirk has. He will likely go overlooked this week due to some very popular names priced right below him. I am willing to gamble on Kirk this week and see if he can regain some confidence in a very watered down field.
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Graeme McDowell – $10,300
Let’s face it – the names at the top of the DraftKings pricing are just gross. This is the one week where we see golfers who are typically priced in the $6K-$7K range break the five digit mark. My thinking with Graeme McDowell this week is since there doesn’t seem to be a clear cut top player above $10,000, why not just play the golfer who will have the lowest ownership. As it stands right now, McDowell is the least tagged golfer on @FanShareSports above the $10K threshold, and is drawing less attention than Luke List and Scott Brown. McDowell has the best resume out of anyone in this field. Has shown the ability to play very well on coastal lined courses. If the weather gets ugly and windy this week, I like McDowell chances even more.
Fabrizio Zanotti – $9,500
Similar to McDowell, Fabrizio Zanotti is making the Perfect Pivot portion due to the simple fact that he is getting overlooked at the top, although he is still a favorite to win this event. Zanotti has shown he can compete with the best players in the world, as he finished T12 at the WGC Mexico Championship. He has only been tagged seven times on FanShareSports, compared to List (25) and Brown (20). Pivoting off of the chalk in a field that is full of inconsistent golfers could be a very wise decision. Does anyone else in this field have a win within their last two starts? Nope.
David Hearn – $8,400
The Canadian theme continues in Puerto Rico with David Hearn being a great pivot. As I write this, Hearn has only been tagged twice on FanShareSports, well below almost everyone else priced $8K and above. Hearn has played in Puerto Rico twice, finishing T8 and T24. He has made his last three cuts in considerably tougher fields. Do not sleep on Hearn this week who seems to be flying in under the radar.
“The Price is Wrong, Bob!”
The pricing on these golfers doesn’t seem right.
Willy Wilcox – $7,900
I hate to do this to a fan favorite, but Willy Wilcox does not deserve to be priced $7,900. The form he was showing in early 2016 has completely disappeared, now he finds himself bouncing in between the PGA Tour and Web.com. Tour. He missed the cut at the Valspar, and withdrew two weeks prior at the Honda Classic. He has never played in this event and does not warrant the $7,900 price tag. I don’t expect Wilcox to be very owned this week, with good reason.
Ryan Brehm – $5,900
You have to scroll all the way to the bottom of the DraftKings price list to find Ryan Brehm, a golfer who has not missed the cut in 2017, yet DraftKings is basically stating he is one of the worst players who competes in PGA Tour events. I’m not buying it. I will definitely be overweight on Brehm, as he provides the cap relief required to roster two of the top golfers in this field.
Puerto Rico Open Research Spreadsheet
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This is our second to last stop before the Masters. There are actually two tournaments going on this week (the WGC Matchplay is also on) but only the Puerto Rico Open is being offered in Daily Fantasy offerings on DraftKings. The field this week is obviously much weaker than normal as none of the top 65 players in the world are in attendance. That being said this tournament has attracted some bigger names from across the seas and it’s boasting one of its stronger fields in a while. The event will take place on a coastal course—Coco Beach Golf Course—where wind can be and has been a huge factor in past incarnations.
Important Notes
The Field: The field this week isn’t your typical PGA offering as it’s mainly a mix between web.com grads, players with conditional status, veterans fitting in one more tournament before they hit the senior tour and European players trying to make an impact overseas. In a field like this it’s easy to simply go with the names you know, but it’s also important to try and get to know as many players as possible as there are some potential diamonds lurking in the rough this week.
The Weather: Wind is always a factor in Puerto Rico. This course has water in play on several holes and is bordering the ocean as well. Not only will you want to factor this in when making decisions about players but you’ll also want to check the tee times and see if one stack might get an advantage over another. The wind can obviously pick up fast in Puerto Rico, but as of now it doesn’t appear like it’s going to be blowing too hard any of the four days. Make sure you check later in the week though for an updated forecast as this can all change quickly.
Stud Picks
Graeme McDowell ($10,300): McDowell fits the bill for me as a player I’m OK paying up for. In this weak field you could probably avoid most of the top plays and be OK but McDowell is coming in off the back of six straight made-cuts to start the year. He’s won on three other coastal courses over his career (Pebble Beach, Hilton Head and down in Mexico for the OHL Classic) and should feel confident in his chances here in such a weak field.
Peter Uihlein ($10,100): Uihlein is quietly showing up here with some of the best recent form on tour and now has seven straight made cuts on the year with four top twenties or better. He’s a Euro Tour regular who has been on top of his game since returning from injury late in 2016. Was sixth here on the back of three rounds of 67 or better in 2013 and is in arguably his best form since that result.
Fabrizio Zanotti ($9,500): Hottest golfer in the field, has a win and a T12 in a WGC event over his last two starts, which includes 35 birdies made overall. Comes in here with no course history but the Paraguayan should feel fairly at home given his routes. Will likely be a player most DFS’ers overlook in gpps but shouldn’t, as he’s played better than anyone in the field over the past three weeks.
Danny Lee ($8,700): After a string of horrible play has put together two solid starts, including a T22 at the Valspar and a T17 at the Arnold Palmer, which includes a five under in the final round. Lee also has a second place finish here from back in 2014 and it will be interesting to see how many DraftKings players trust him given that he missed five cuts in a row before the Valspar.
Brandon Hagy ($8,300): There are a few really good young players who have all started the season strong and are priced between 8 and 9k this week. Hagy is the most appealing to me however. He’s made three straight cuts since Pebble Beach, a stretch that includes a couple low rounds, including a 64 from the Honda Classic. Like last year’s winner, Tony Finau, Hagy can blast it off the tee and currently ranks fourth in that stat (distance off the tee) on tour. He also finished 16th here in tough conditions back in 2015, a good indicator he can handle a bit of bad weather if it pops up.
Others: JT Poston
Value Picks
Andrew Johnston ($7,900): “Beef” has started the season slowly but in such a weak field needs to be considered at under 8k. Johnston brings a resume that most golfers here cannot match, including a win at the famed Valderrama. He’s proven an ability to handle tough conditions better than most in his young career and if the conditions are similar to the last couple of years this should favour him.
Harold Varner III ($7,300): Varner is another player who has started the season slowly, but who also brings some serious class to a weaker field. Varner had a solid year on tour in 2016 and followed that up with a win across the ocean in Australia last December in a field that was arguably better than the one were getting this week. Overall, he’s now made three of his last five cuts in 2017, and was fourth in SG: Approaches last week at the Arnold Palmer. Like last year’s winner, Tony Finau, he doesn’t have any course experience but has played well at the OHL Classic, and other events off the mainland.
John Peterson ($7,200): Another talented young player who just looks too cheap this week. Peterson has been up and down to start the year but a T15 in Phoenix, which included a third round 63, showed us his game isn’t far off. He’s played well in more humid environments in the past as well as he has top twenties in both Hawaii and Mexico to his name. A big week here wouldn’t be a surprise to me at all.
Bryson DeChambeau ($7,000): Bryson isn’t quite where he was last year when he was challenging for the win at Augusta, but he looked semi-close his last time out at the Valspar. While his putting continues to be a challenge his tee to green game has been solid his last two times out. The slower/softer greens here should help and he’s simply too cheap for his talent level.
Zac Blair ($6,400): Blair brings consistency this week and a lot of good play at corollary courses. He’s finished inside the top ten at Hawaii twice and also has a top twenty to his name in Mexico. Blair has missed his last two cuts overall but I would still feel OK rostering him at his price this week as he generally makes more cuts than he misses and finished 38th here back in 2015, his only visit to this tournament.
Others: Ryan Brehm
High-upside GPP Picks
Thorbjorn Olesen ($7,700): Olesen has multiple European tour wins to his name and has generally been a great finisher over his young career. The Dane is a bit of a wildcard however as he’ll often fade throughout the week if he doesn’t get off to a good start. This makes him the perfect DraftKings gpp play this week however as he’s clearly priced far too low for this field, and carries a better shot at winning this week than most players. He’s handled windy links venues well before and that could translate well here too.
Boo Weekley ($7,300): Weekley is the first player I’m recommending solely based on his course history. He’s not missed the cut at this event in his last four visits and has three top tens here in that span. He doesn’t have any high finishes to his name this year but he has made three of his last four cuts overall. At an event where veterans often shine, he’s one I would not overlook if making multiple tournament lineups on DraftKings this week.
Michael Thompson ($6,400): Thompson is another player who fits perfectly into the gpp-only group for me. While his made cut rate is generally poor compared to other top players, Thompson has winning upside. He’s played well at windy venues before (won the Honda Classic back in 2013) and has also made the cut at this event in all three appearances. While he comes in off the back of three missed cuts he’s a player who can find form fast and has two top twenties to his name already in 2017, and also won a web.com playoff event late in 2016.
Other: Ben Crane, Seamus Power
Draftkings Puerto Rico Map
Players to Consider (in no order)
– Graeme McDowell, Peter Uihlein, Fabrizio Zanotti, Danny Lee, John Peterson, Michael Thompson, Thorbjorn Olesen, Harold Varner III, Andrew Johnston
– Brandon Hagy, JT Poston, Zac Blair, Bryson DeChambeau, Boo Weekley, Ben Crane, Seamus Power, Ryan Brehm
Bets:
Draftkings Puerto Rico Vs
Peter Uihlein 33-1
John Peterson 70-1
Harold Varner 80-1
Michael Thompson 100-1